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Poll says three in four want Trudeau to go, but Trudeau insists he’ll stay – National

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On Feb. 28, 1984, Pierre Trudeau went for his famous walk in the snow where he made a decision about his political future.

Tomorrow — a leap year Feb. 29 — his sons, including a future prime minister, crash into his bedroom to say goodbye to dad before heading to school. Then Pierre said to them, “Boys, it’s time to go.” The elder Trudeau announced his resignation that day, clearing the way for a decade of leadership by Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives.

But if anyone thinks that Pierre’s son will clear the way for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by walking in the snow himself this February and declaring to his children “it’s time to go”, they may be disappointed .

Justin Trudeau has told his closest advisers that he would not be honest with himself if he stepped down as Liberal leader and prime minister; that he hopes to contest an election against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre; and he believes that with two years before the next election — assuming the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence deal — he and his party have enough runway to turn the poll numbers around and win th -four consecutive general elections, only one victory was achieved. by John A. Macdonald and Wilfrid Laurier.

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But neither Macdonald nor Laurier have ever faced an electorate as vulnerable to a prime minister as Trudeau.

The new Ipsos poll, provided exclusively to Global News, shows that nearly three in four Canadians believe Trudeau should step down now. Among self-identified Liberal Party supporters, one in three think it is time for a new party leader.

“I’ve never seen a number that high for a prime minister, maybe since Brian Mulroney in 1991, 1992. And that really reminds me,” said Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker.

“They made Justin Trudeau’s party and they will live or die by that. They must have lived well for the last eight years. But the other outcome was the one where they lost because they were Justin Trudeau’s party. And there they are now.”

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As popular as Trudeau is, so is the party.

Ipsos found that, if an election were held today, 40 percent would vote Conservative, 24 percent would vote Liberal and 21 percent would vote NDP.

“If the NDP passes the Liberals in terms of the second choice, I know what Jack Layton would do if he was the leader of the party,” Bricker said.

“He’s certainly not going to support the government and they’re going to do it because they see themselves as the progressive replacement, the other option on the ballot agenda for progressive-minded Canadians, but this NDP hasn’t shown that level of moxie. “

Although Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has been critical of Trudeau’s Liberals, they have not given any serious indication that they will unilaterally destroy the supply-and-confidence agreement – an agreement under which the minority Liberal government is guaranteed support to NDP matters of confidence in exchange for showing progress on a series of issues the NDP believes should be federal priorities, such as national pharmacare, universal dental care and housing.

The Liberals are not only in danger of falling to third place nationally, but they have also dropped to second place in Quebec where the Bloc Quebecois was the choice of 32 percent of Ipsos polled in that province. The Liberals there chose 28 percent and the Conservatives chose 22 percent.

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Ipsos surveyed 1,000 Canadians using its online panel from Nov. 14 to 17. And while the margin of error cannot be calculated from online panels, the pollster said it can measure the reliability of its polls using a statistical method known as the credibility interval. Using that method, the pollster says its job is reliable to within 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bricker said the Conservative’s 16-point lead was not so much the result of any particularly enthusiastic voters for Poilievre or the Conservatives as it was sheer fatigue with the Trudeau government and the Trudeau government’s inability to see as managing issues that Canadians care about. about most: inflation, health care and housing.

When Ipsos asked respondents which party they thought would be best at tackling inflation, fixing the housing crisis, managing the economy, and cutting taxes, most respondents chose the Conservatives. On health care, poverty and social inequality, the NDP was the top choice, and on climate change, the Green Party came out on top.

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The Liberal Party was not seen on either issue as best able to manage it.

However, Trudeau himself believes that another election win is possible. With Sean Fraser as its new point person on housing, the government is trying to convince Canadians that it is making significant changes to housing affordability and supply. That could help boost Liberal numbers. Meanwhile, for the first time since Trudeau became his party’s leader a decade ago, the party is running paid negative advertising attacking Poilievre in hopes of driving down Conservative numbers.

Looking at current polling data, Bricker believes that Trudeau’s optimism and faith is “a very bold view of the current situation.”

Bricker said the best hope for liberals, given the desire for change among three-quarters of the electorate, is for a major external shock — a Trump re-election perhaps — or a series of major missteps. of the Poilievre Conservatives.

“It would be completely unusual for someone to pull it out of the fire in the situation he was in,” Bricker said.

“I mean, even his own party supporters, a significant number of them do not want him to run again. Nothing there. There is no silver lining that anyone can really get that suggests there is any way to improve these situations.”

David Akin is the chief political correspondent for Global News.

© 2023 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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