Ministers are using “outdated and flawed” Home Office analysis to persuade Conservative MPs to vote in favor of Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill, party sources with knowledge of the matter said.
Modeling distributed to MPs claims that 99.5% of individual legal challenges submitted by asylum seekers will fail to prevent their deportation to Rwanda.
The document, titled “High-level process for the new bill” and first revealed in The Times, is being circulated by whips ahead of the first vote on the bill in the Commons on Tuesday.
Conservative sources say the modeling is based on March data, and does not take into account subsequent rulings by the appeals court and the Supreme Court that have lowered the threshold for asylum claims.
A Tory source said: “This is an outdated and analytically flawed model from March which preceded its defeats in the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court. Number 10’s don’t realize that the world has changed and that is their fundamental problem. No modeling was ever done for the new Rwanda bill because they failed to plan. Even this older, optimistic model says it could take more than two months to evacuate a migrant. “If it weren’t so serious it would be funny.”
The revelations come as it emerged the Home Office had earmarked at least £700m to manage the arrival of refugees and migrants on small boats by 2030, with an option to extend the contract until 2034.
Documents discovered by the BBC say the money will be spent on running the Western Jet Foil facility in Dover and the reception center at the former Manston airfield in Kent.
Modeling being sent to MPs claims nine out of 10 individual legal challenges against Sunak’s emergency bill will be rejected without the right of appeal within 10 days of the claimant arriving in the UK.
Home Office officials claimed this was because they would have to provide evidence that they would suffer “serious and irreversible harm” if removed to Rwanda. They will be flown to Rwanda seven days after spending less than three weeks in the UK, the document continues.
Lawmakers on the right of the Conservative Party will decide whether to vote for the bill on Monday after hearing a detailed assessment from the “Star Chamber” of legal experts. A majority are expected to vote in favor of the bill or abstain despite objecting to it as they are expected to amend it at a later stage.
Sources said several MPs from the One Nation centre-right grouping have told whips they intend to vote against the bill on Tuesday.
This has been claimed in a report by right-wing think tank Policy Exchange The Bill, as it exists, does not adequately anticipate and address the risk of other types of litigation that could challenge the Bill’s premises and/or impede its implementation in practice. Policy Exchange suggests ways that the bill can and should be amended to address relevant risks.